The 2025 College Football Playoff bracket that my co-host Ari Wasserman released last week is not going to make nearly as much sense as this one.
Not because I’ll be making more accurate forecasts, mind you. Because the commissioners that oversee the CFP chose to utilise common sense, it will make more sense. (For this year, at least; we’ll discuss whatever they’re coming up with for 2026 in a separate piece.) This year’s CFP will be seeded precisely as the selection committee rates the teams, the commissioners determined last week.
The top four seeds (and the accompanying byes) were assured for the four highest ranking conference champions last year. This puzzled casual fans who were watching the sport for its final stretch, placing ninth-ranked Boise State in the No. 3 spot and 12th-ranked Arizona State in the No. 4 slot.
This year, that won’t occur. No. 3 will be the third-ranked squad, and No. 10 will be the tenth-ranked team. It is therefore simpler to explain. However, it is unlikely to be any simpler to forecast.
Let’s get started.
Round One, No. 12 At number five, James Madison State of Ohio: Maybe Boise State wins the Mountain West and advances to the CFP for the second time in a row. However, Ashton Jeanty is no longer with the Broncos, who will play Notre Dame on October 4. They also have challenging non-conference games against Appalachian State and USF. So let’s consider another league. Even though some of JMU’s top 2023 players were helping Indiana go 11-1 and qualify for the CFP, Bob Chesney took over as head coach at JMU after Curt Cignetti left, and he guided the Dukes to a 9-4 record. He is currently back with Matthew Sluka, his former quarterback for Holy Cross. (Do you recall him from the first month of the 2024 season at UNLV?)
The Sun Belt is now a more comparable conference at the top of the Group of 5 (soon to be 6) due to the American’s dilution from the Big 12 expansion. If the Dukes can defeat Louisville in non-conference play, a Sun Belt champion JMU would be considered. Sadly, Columbus is where the journey comes to an end. After Ohio State lost to Texas, defeated Penn State in Columbus, and then fell to the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten championship game, I ranked them here.
Eleventh Miami at number six Alabama: Are you shocked that the Hurricanes are here? Miami has a great chance to be here if defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman’s hiring and the addition of transfer portal talent on that side of the ball go well. Yes, the Hoosiers are still good, but I also thought about the Hurricanes, Illinois, and Indiana for this position. It basically boiled down to who I believed would defeat a squad of CFP calibre. It seemed more likely for Miami to defeat Notre Dame in its season opener than for Illinois to defeat Ohio State or Indiana to defeat Penn State or Oregon. The Hurricanes lost the ACC title game to Florida and later to Clemson, despite defeating the Fighting Irish in this prediction. (A team in this circumstance might forfeit another regular-season game, considering how the committee shielded title game losers the previous year.)
Alabama, my extremely great team, is currently 11-1 against its regular-season schedule and lost to Texas in the SEC championship game. Alabama’s roster would make them extremely dangerous in a single-elimination tournament, providing that whoever Crimson Tide coach Kalen DeBoer selects as quarterback (we’re presuming Ty Simpson) has improved during the season as a first-year starter. After winning, the Crimson Tide advance to the quarterfinals.
Number 10 Texas Tech at number seven Georgia Since the Big 12 is the hardest league to predict, I’m siding with the team that invested this offseason in building one of the best squads in the conference. Although Texas Tech made improvements around the field, the Red Raiders should be quite strong if the secondary was greatly improved by the investment.
Gunner Stockton, who started the previous season’s Sugar Bowl loss to Notre Dame, is Georgia’s new quarterback. The Bulldogs made a receiving upgrade through the portal, and if their offensive line has better injury luck this season, the offence should be able to score more points against top defences. Since Georgia isn’t flawless, I predict that the Bulldogs will lose to Alabama and either Tennessee or Auburn during the regular season. However, as the season goes on and former blue-chip recruits grow used to larger responsibilities, I think Kirby Smart’s squad will improve. The Bulldogs are a threat to go far because of this as well.
The ninth Florida at position eight Oregon If quarterback D.J. Lagway’s arm is healthy, he will boost a club that improved greatly on both lines of scrimmage as the previous season went on. The Gators’ floor is still Fire Everyone, but their ceiling is in the CFP because of their difficult schedule and the persistent doubts surrounding coach Billy Napier. I have them defeating LSU, Miami, and Texas A&M, but losing to Georgia and Texas.
Due to the now-eliminated seeding criteria, Oregon, which finished unbeaten in the regular season the previous year, had the misfortune of facing Ohio State in its first CFP match. The Ducks have once again reloaded at crucial points in the portal, especially at three offensive line positions, after losing a tonne of talent to the draft. This should result in a talented roster, yet one that isn’t always reliable. Although I don’t think the Ducks will win the Big Ten again, I do think they will win in the first round.
Quarterfinals of the Sugar Bowl between No. 1 Texas and No. 8 Oregon: In the quarterfinals, Oregon faces the nation’s most skilled squad once more. Despite losing to Georgia during the regular season, Texas defeated Florida and Ohio State before defeating Alabama in the SEC championship game.
This results in a team that has been through a lot of hardships in New Orleans, most of which participated in a close semifinal matchup with eventual national champion Ohio State last year. This is the second year in a row that Texas has advanced to the semifinals.
No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 5 Ohio State in the Orange Bowl: According to this prediction, Clemson will defeat South Carolina in its regular-season finale after defeating LSU to begin the season and winning the ACC. The Tigers then earned a bye after defeating Miami in the ACC championship game.
Ohio State doesn’t start off strong like they did in the Rose Bowl last year. The Buckeyes make it to the semifinals after a memorable matchup between the Tigers and Buckeyes.
The Rose Bowl matchup between No. 7 Georgia and No. 2 Penn State is the result of the Nittany Lions winning the Big Ten for the second time under coach James Franklin. Unfortunately, they don’t get as gentle a path as they got as the Big Ten runner-up last year. A Georgia squad that just so happened to come hot at the right moment will be their opponent.
The Cotton Bowl matchup between No. 3 Notre Dame and No. 6 Alabama: This Bluebloods matchup has extremely high TV ratings. However, the roster skill is far more evenly distributed than it was during the BCS and four-team CFP seasons when the Fighting Irish faced the Crimson Tide. Notre Dame arrived here in a manner fairly reminiscent of that of the previous season. The Irish won 11 straight after falling to Miami in the first game. Additionally, they qualified for a bye due to the modification in the seeding regulations. For the second straight season, Notre Dame advances to the semifinals after this one also goes right down to the wire.
No. 5 semifinals Ohio State versus Texas, the top-seeded team, in the Peach Bowl: The outcome of the Cotton Bowl semifinal rematch from the previous year is reversed. It is safe to assume that Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian does not call a toss play close to the goal line when the score is close.
He has come to his senses.
No. 3 Notre Dame vs. No. 7 Georgia in the Fiesta Bowl: Another rematch from the previous season’s CFP goes in a different direction. Georgia advances to play a Texas club they defeated in Athens in November after eradicating the mental and special teams errors that cost the Bulldogs against Notre Dame in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal the previous season.
No. 7 in the National Championship Georgia vs No. 1 Texas: Hard Rock Stadium doesn’t have nearly as many barking fans as it did in Athens behind the hedges, and it’s not November anymore. Since Vince Young and company surprised USC in the Rose Bowl following the 2005 season, Texas quarterback Arch Manning is poised for the moment and leads the Longhorns to their first national championship.
